Poland’s demographic situation and flexible models of employment

Introduction
In recent decades, Poland has been undergoing profound demographic changes that increasingly affect its economic, social, and labour market structures. Declining fertility rates, population aging, and a shrinking workforce have become defining features of this transformation. These trends pose serious challenges to sustainable development, public finances and social cohesion. In response, flexible forms of employment are gaining importance as a potential solution to mitigate the negative effects of demographic decline and to better utilise the existing labour potential.

Declining fertility rates
Poland currently ranks among the European countries with the lowest fertility rates. The total fertility rate stands at approximately 1.05 children per woman, which is far below the replacement level of about 2.1. This long-term decline has persisted for many years and has led to a continuous reduction in population size, both in urban and rural areas.

In 2025, the median age of Poland’s population reached nearly 45 years, representing an increase of over nine years compared to 2000. This clearly reflects the rapid aging of society. The consequences include negative natural population growth, a shrinking youth population, and a systematic decline in the number of people of working age.

Public debate on the causes of the demographic crisis has intensified in recent years. An influential article by Anna Gromada published in The Guardian highlighted that falling birth rates cannot be explained solely by economic or political factors. Instead, they are deeply rooted in social transformations, including weakening interpersonal relationships, growing loneliness, and difficulties faced by young people in building stable partnerships.

Population aging
Population aging in Poland is accelerating steadily. The share of people aged 65 and over is rising, and Eurostat forecasts indicate that in the coming decades the pace of this process will exceed the EU average.

Although Poland remains slightly younger demographically than many EU countries, this advantage is gradually disappearing. By the middle of this century, both the median age and the proportion of elderly citizens are expected to surpass the EU average.

At the same time, life expectancy continues to increase. In 2024, the average life expectancy for men reached 74.9 years, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 0.8 years. Combined with low fertility, this trend is reshaping the age structure of the population.

As a result, the ratio of working-age people to retirees is deteriorating. This places growing pressure on pension systems, healthcare services, and public finances. Poland is now in a phase of permanent demographic transformation typical of highly developed economies, characterised by low fertility, longer life expectancy, and an increasing role of migration.

Decline in the working-age population
According to forecasts, by 2035 the number of employed people in Poland may decrease by around 2.1 million, representing a decline of nearly 13%. This poses a real risk of labour shortages in key sectors such as healthcare, education, manufacturing, public services, and social care.

The decreasing number of young people entering the labour market makes it increasingly difficult to maintain traditional employment models. Employers are already facing recruitment challenges, while productivity and innovation may suffer as a result.

Labour market participation
In recent years, Poland has recorded a gradual increase in employment rates among people aged 50-64. However, these rates remain significantly below the EU average. Pre-retirement individuals constitute one of the largest groups of economically inactive people, especially among early retirees.

According to the OECD, people aged 50 and over represent a substantial and still underutilised labour potential. Activating this group is essential in the context of shrinking labour resources.

Using machine learning algorithms, the OECD identified three main groups of economically inactive individuals:

1. People receiving disability benefits
2. Pensioners
3. Economically inactive women without childcare responsibilities.

The second group is particularly significant. In 2022, over 310,000 people of working age receiving pensions remained economically inactive despite having no certified disability. Employment rates among people above retirement age remain very low. Up to five years after reaching retirement age, only 18% of men and 24% of women were employed, compared to OECD averages of 36 and 47% respectively.

Qualitative studies indicate that willingness to work in these groups is relatively high, provided that appropriate working conditions are offered. One of the main barriers is the limited availability of flexible employment forms. In 2023, only 5% of employees in Poland worked part-time, compared to the OECD average of 15%.

The growing importance of flexible employment models
In the face of population aging and workforce decline, flexible employment arrangements are becoming increasingly important. These include interim management, project-based work, fixed-term contracts, part-time employment, and hybrid work models.

Many older workers prefer a gradual reduction in professional activity rather than an abrupt transition to retirement. Temporary or project-based work allows them to remain active without full-time commitment.

Highly experienced professionals are well suited for expert, mentoring, and advisory roles. Their knowledge and skills can be effectively utilised without the need for permanent employment. Flexible arrangements also promote longer participation in the labour market, which is crucial in an aging society with rising pension costs.

Maintaining the professional activity of people aged 50 and over helps reduce labour shortages, increases the tax base, and lowers pressure on social benefit systems. From a macroeconomic perspective, it supports economic stability and long-term growth.

Poland’s demographic challenges are structural and long-term in nature. Low fertility, population aging, and a shrinking workforce will continue to shape the country’s socio-economic landscape in the coming decades. Traditional labour market models are no longer sufficient to address these issues.

Flexible forms of employment offer a promising pathway to better utilise existing human capital, especially among older workers. By promoting adaptable work arrangements, Poland can mitigate labour shortages, strengthen public finances, and enhance social inclusion. Effective policies in this area will be essential for ensuring sustainable development in an era of demographic transformation.