Commercial property market in Poland after Q1 2026

Strong start to 2026 for Poland’s property investment market
The beginning of 2026 delivered a strong volume of closed transactions, marking a promising start to the year. Total investment volume reached €1.2 billion, representing a 43% year-on-year increase and the strongest Q1 performance in the past four years.

Each of the three major commercial real estate sectors recorded one transaction exceeding €100 million. While overall liquidity declined by 30%, the average transaction size increased significantly, reflecting improved pricing alignment and growing investor confidence. In terms of capital origin, CEE investors dominated, followed by the US, Western Europe, Poland and South Korea.

Industrial sector leads the market
The industrial sector emerged as the most active segment in Q1 2026, with nine transactions totaling €447 million, accounting for 44% of total investment volume. The sector continues to attract core capital, which remains the most active in this market segment, seeking stable and predictable cash flows, particularly assets secured by long-term lease agreements. Sale-and-leaseback transactions remain a key driver of activity.

The pricing consensus in this sector between buyers and sellers is becoming more common, what is reflected in the recovery in investment activity, primarily driven by foreign capital inflows. Additionally, the anticipated repricing of older warehouse assets may further stimulate market activity. 

Retail remains resilient and accessible
The retail sector ranked second, with €318 million in transaction volume and a 31% market share. The segment continues to attract strong investor interest, supported by a diverse product offering appealing to both domestic and international capital.

A total of 10 retail transactions were completed, with the largest portfolio deal accounting for 60% of the sector’s volume. Retail parks remain firmly in focus – six out of ten deals involved retail parks or standalone grocery assets, confirming the continued popularity of convenience-driven formats.

Office sector shows signs of recovery
The office market recorded €245 million in investment volume in Q1 2026, including three prime transactions. The largest deal, exceeding €100 million, was the acquisition of Royal Wilanów in Warsaw by Wood & Company, advised by Avison Young and CMS.

While regional cities are gaining traction, their share of total volume remains relatively limited. Although five out of eight transactions were completed in regional markets, including a prime asset in Kraków, they accounted for 25% of total volume.

With a strong pipeline of transactions currently under negotiation, the office sector is expected to maintain performance levels comparable to 2025, supported by solid market fundamentals and continued investor interest.

Outlook: positive momentum with cautious sentiment
The positive momentum is expected to continue throughout 2026, supported by a favorable outlook for the Polish real estate market. Poland remains an attractive destination for investors thanks to its strong economic fundamentals, stable regulatory environment, and position as a safe and liquid market.

Growing interest from Western investors – particularly from France – signals a potential return of core capital, which could further boost market activity.

However, geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East, may pose risks. Rising oil prices could reintroduce inflationary pressures, potentially leading to higher interest rates after a period of gradual decline. As the real estate market tends to react more slowly than the capital markets and shows some inertia, thus in short-term ‘wait and see’ approach can be observed.

Legal perspective: key trends observed
From a legal advisory standpoint, the trends identified above are clearly reflected in the nature and complexity of mandates we handle at CMS. Several observations deserve particular attention.

Market recovery and new entrants
We confirm the revival of the commercial real estate investment market in Poland. Beyond the return of established players, we are witnessing a notable influx of new investors entering the Polish market and acquiring assets for the first time. This renewed appetite for Polish commercial real estate is a strong signal of market confidence and long-term commitment to the region.

Increasingly complex transaction structures
At the same time, we observe that investors are increasingly moving beyond straightforward asset or share acquisitions. More complex transaction structures are becoming the norm rather than the exception. Investors frequently enter into longer-term partnerships at the level of joint venture agreements (JVAs) and development management agreements (DMAs), seeking to align interests with local partners and share risk over the lifecycle of a project. Forward-funding and forward-acquisition arrangements are also gaining significant traction, allowing investors to secure pipeline assets at earlier development stages while managing construction and delivery risk through tailored legal frameworks. These structures demand sophisticated legal documentation and careful allocation of rights, obligations and risk between the parties involved.

Emerging asset classes
We are also seeing increased investor activity in less conventional asset classes, most notably the private rented sector (PRS) and data centres. From a legal perspective, PRS transactions require a refreshed and more specialised approach compared to traditional commercial real estate. The regulatory landscape governing residential lettings, tenant protection mechanisms, operational management structures and the interplay between development and long-term asset management create a distinct set of legal challenges. Advising on PRS assets calls for a deeper understanding of housing regulations, lease structuring for individual units at scale, and the operational complexities inherent in managing a large residential portfolio – all of which set this asset class apart from conventional office, retail or logistics investments.

Data centres represent another rapidly growing asset class attracting significant investor interest in Poland. Driven by the expansion of cloud computing, artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure demand across Central Europe, data centre projects present their own set of legal complexities. These include securing adequate power supply agreements, navigating environmental and zoning requirements specific to high-energy-consumption facilities, structuring long-term lease or build-to-suit arrangements with hyperscaler and colocation tenants, and addressing the increasingly rigorous regulatory framework around data sovereignty and cybersecurity. The legal structuring of data centre investments therefore requires a multidisciplinary approach, combining real estate, energy, technology and regulatory expertise.

Looking further ahead, we anticipate that the senior housing sector will emerge as another significant asset class in Poland. The country’s demographic trajectory – characterised by an ageing population and shifting household structures – points to a substantial and growing demand for purpose-built senior living facilities. While this segment remains at a very early stage of development compared to more mature Western European markets, we expect investor interest to accelerate in the coming years as the demographic need becomes more pressing and the regulatory and operational frameworks for senior housing continue to evolve. From a legal perspective, this asset class will require expertise at the intersection of real estate, healthcare regulation and social policy, creating yet another area where specialised advisory will be essential.

Growing role of transactional insurance (W&I and title policies)
Finally, given the increasing complexity and often more challenging nature of the assets being transacted, we note a growing impact of transactional insurance policies – both warranty and indemnity (W&I) insurance and title insurance – on the Polish commercial real estate market. Whereas historically such policies were procured primarily in response to specific identified risks relating to a property, we now observe a shift towards a default assumption that transactional insurance will form an integral part of the deal structure from the outset. This evolution reflects both the maturing of the Polish market and a broader alignment with Western European and global transaction practices, where W&I and title policies are standard components of the risk allocation framework between buyers and sellers.