Designing buildings for the climate of the 2050s

What do wine and sustainable buildings have in common? Probably not that much… But as I was recently looking into my calendar, I noticed that there was an International Merlot Day. It reminded me of a visit I made to a new winery in central Poland a couple of months ago. The owner told me something fascinating: the local climate there today is quite similar to what Provence (France) had around 30 years ago. That’s why they can now grow grape varieties here in Poland that would have been impossible before.

I could not find any scientific paper confirming that exact comparison, but it did make me think about something bigger: climate change is not just coming – it’s already here. It is already reshaping our agriculture. It should also be changing the way we think about buildings. But is it?

We design buildings to last 60–100 years or more. But are we really considering what the climate will be like in just 10 or 20 years’ time? And are we taking into account how those buildings might get affected as a result?

• Would it still be comfortable inside during heatwaves?
• Will there be enough water during periods of drought and potential water shortage?
• Can the building withstand extreme weather events?
• How much energy would it consume?
• Will the HVAC systems handle different loads breakdown?

Taking Poland as an example, local building regulations do not make things easy. You will find pages and pages about thermal or acoustic insulation, permissible vibrations along with detailed requirements for fences, wells or even some guidance for livestock housing. But how many times would you see the words ‘climate resilience’ or ‘adaptation’?

Exactly zero.

That is why creating good buildings today means going far beyond what is required as a minimum by regulations. It is about designing for climate adaptation, human health & well-being, and energy efficiency in operation.

Today, just compliance is simply not enough.

Is such an approach feasible in the Polish market, where a building may be sold several times before it is ultimately handed over? Why bother if the financials still add up?

In my view, we are on the verge of a paradigm shift. The assumption that any new, or existing building will automatically find a buyer is increasingly being challenged. Awareness of climate adaptation is growing, and a simple truth is becoming more widely recognised – when we rush to build only to minimum standards, we are merely creating the problems of tomorrow:

• Stranded assets
• High vacancy rates
• Poor indoor air quality
• Horrendous energy bills (despite decent energy performance certificates)
• Costly renovations needed to bring our assets up to an acceptable level.

Just like a good wine, sustainable building needs a bit of care and foresight to truly age well. Bad wine just disappoints at dinner, but a poorly designed building creates problems for decades.