DTZ Global Occupancy Costs - Offices' report
Streszczenie:DTZ’s ‘Global Occupancy Costs - Offices’ report reveals that average occupancy costs per workstation in Europe increased (in local currency) by a mere 1% during 2011, as mounting concerns over the European sovereign debt crisis stalled occupier activity. As a result, occupier costs decreased across the majority of markets. Furthermore, many occupiers are focusing on cost control and efficient space use, rather than expansion. As such, space utilisation standards have fallen, on average, by -2%.
- Average global office occupancy costs remained stable in 2011 for the second year running as highlighted in this fifteenth edition of our ‘Global Occupancy Costs - Offices’ report. Whilst occupiers benefitted from the greatest cost savings in the Middle East & Africa, the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis also brought about falling occupancy costs across Europe. Central & South America, Asia Pacific and North America all recorded varying degrees of occupancy cost increases during the year. But, even these increases were below inflation, still offering real cost savings.
- While Tier II cities in India and China dominate the list of top 10 cheapest markets globally (including Qingdao, Chengdu, Dalian, Chennai and Pune), Surabaya in Indonesia remains number one. Once again, Hong Kong, London, Geneva, Tokyo and Zurich were the five most expensive office locations in 2011, with Moscow and Oslo entering the ranking of 10 most expensive global locations for the first time. With 38.1% for the year, Beijing showed the highest cost increase of any market globally.
- Looking forward, our base case forecasts show yearly increases in occupancy costs across all regions over the five year period. Asia Pacific is projected to have the highest levels of increase (3.3%), particularly in China (3.4%) and India (5%). At 1.7%, occupiers in Europe are anticipated to experience more muted occupancy cost increases over the same period, as austerity measures and financial uncertainty strengthen occupier positions. US costs are forecasted to show sustained if sometimes modest increases.
- We forecast little change to our top 10 least and most expensive markets by 2016, although there will be a change in ranking. At the lower cost end, the secondary Indian cities are forecast to show strong cost increases; whilst at the most expensive end, we forecast Tokyo will return to the top three.
- Under our downside Euro-zone break-up scenario, European markets will have a sustained period of rental stagnation or decline, offering longterm cost savings. In Asia Pacific, the short term impact (2012) is bigger than expected. But, rental growth resumes with little net impact in the long term (Figure 1). This would provide a limited window of opportunity for occupiers to re-negotiate their leases. The impact on US markets is more muted in the short term, but slightly bigger in the long term when compared to Asia Pacific.