No-deal Brexit seems less likely

The Bank of England September meeting came and went, the MPC remains on hold, and the markets shrugged and largely ignored it, instead focusing on Brexit.

The news on this front continues to tilt to positive. The implied probability of a no-deal Brexit in 2019 currently stands at around 20-25% according to most bookmakers.

The Parliament has passed a bill forcing the Government to request a deadline extension if Parliament doesn't agree to a deal. Our baseline scenario is still that the deadline is postponed and the issue is decided (or not!) in a new general election soon after. No news is expected here this week, so we expect the Pound to trade off events elsewhere.

GBP/PLN (16/09/19 - 23/09/19)

Source: Bloomberg Date: 23/09/19

Author: Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, Chief Risk Officer at Ebury

Keywords Ebury, GBP