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Weekly economic update 17 - 23 November 2008 |
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| The Polish financial market still remains mainly under influence of changes in moods in the global markets. At the start of the week there was an increase in risk aversion amid small liquidity during the long weekend, which led to clear weakening of the zloty and domestic bonds, though in the second part of the week there was a partial recovery, which was supported by bounce back in the world stock markets ahead of the weekend G20 meeting. The domestic data on inflation and balance of payments released in the past week were in line with market expectations and did not have influence on the zloty and local bond prices as well as on our expectations of monetary policy prospects – we still expect a fall of NBP interest rates by 100 bp next year. |
This week we will get next domestic data (output, wages, employment, business climate indicators), which will allow to better asses the scale of weakening of the Polish economy (and also the probability of possibly sooner and deeper interest rate cuts by the MPC), though they will not fully reflect the effects of intensification of the global crisis. The Polish market will be still be mostly under influence of changes in the moods in the global markets and the moods will depend on reaction to results of G20 meeting and many data releases abroad scheduled for this week.
Download: Weekly economic update 17 - 23 November 2008
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